Friday, August 1, 2008

Worst Residential Real Estate Market Since Man First Walked on the Moon, Says Winans International

NOVATO, CA., Aug. 1 /PRNewswire/ -- U.S. new home prices are down 13%, new home sales have reduced by 39% and property listings are down 22% since the real estate market's historic peak set in March of 2007. This marks the worst real estate bear market since 1970.

Winans International Real Estate Index (New U.S. Homes)
Percentage Change Since March 31, 2007

U.S. West Northeast South Midwest

Price (13%) (15%) (10%) (9%) (8%)

Sales (39%) (52%) (43%) (33%) (33%)

Listings (22%) (20%) (21%) (22%) (23%)

While this is humbling news to millions of homeowners nationwide, not everyone is feeling the pain in the same degree.As can be seen in the chart above, the greatest declines in home prices and sales volume have been felt in the Western states.

The Midwest has faired the best in the nation with the least price declines and better sales activity.In comparing today's real estate to past bear markets, it is interesting to note that while price declines were worse in 1969/70 (-18% vs. -13%), sales and listings have "dried up" much worse today than 38 years ago.

Fortunately, while the current condition is bad it is not record setting. The worst decline of U.S. new home prices in the last 150-years was the -68% decline from 1929 to 1932.

Winans International Real Estate Index (New U.S. Homes) Bear Market Historical Comparisons:

% Change 2007-2008 1969-1970 1929-1932

Price (13%) (18%) (68%)

Sales (39%) (16%) NA

Listings (22%) (7%) NA

Duration (yrs) NA 1.5 3.0

The Winans International Real Estate Index (WIREI) measures U.S. new home prices from 1830 to present day. More information on the Winans International Real Estate Index can be found at http://www.winansintl.com/

CONTACT:

Liz Boaz, Communications Assistant of Winans InternationalInvestment Management & Research, +1-415-506-3070, liz@winansintl.com


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