NEW YORK, NY -- According to the Trepp July Payoff Report,
the percentage of loans paying off on their balloon date registered 74.1% last
month. This percentage is the highest reading in almost five years. December
2008, which saw 84.9% of loans paying at maturity, was the last month that had
a higher level.
The July reading was more than 15 points better than June's
58.5%. At 74.1%, the July payoff percentage is well above the 12-month moving
average of 61.5%. (This number sums the averages of each month and divides by
12, there was no balance weighting across the months.) By loan count (as
opposed to balance), 71.3% of loans paid off. The 12-month rolling average by loan
count is now 63.8%.
To be sure, the July 2013 reading is hard to compare to
numbers from 2012. In 2012, many of the loans maturing were five year balloons
from the 2007 vintage. The majority of loans reaching their maturity now are
10-year balloons loans that were originated in 2003.
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