Atlanta, GA – PKF Hospitality Research, LLC (PKF-HR)
released the results of their latest assessment of the accuracy of their Hotel
Horizons® forecasts for the U.S. lodging industry.
This is the third periodic review conducted by PKF-HR since
2005 and is an important and critical component of the firm’s forecasting
efforts.
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| R. Mark Woodworth |
“When we initially entered the econometric forecasting
business 14 years ago, we committed ourselves to a process of continuous
self-evaluation,” said R. Mark Woodworth, president of PKF-HR.
“The findings from
these analyses inform the nuts and bolts of our ongoing forecasting
efforts. Plus it enables our clients to
overtly see that we strive to provide them with the most accurate forecasts
upon which to make their important decisions.”
PKF-HR’s Hotel Horizons® is a series of hotel forecast
reports that analyze the historical and expected performance of U.S. lodging
markets.
Driven by a series of econometric forecasting models, the
Hotel Horizons® reports cover five years of supply, demand, occupancy, ADR, and
RevPAR for 50 major U.S. markets, as well as six national chain-scale segments
and six national location categories.
Within each market forecast, separate estimates are prepared
for upper-price and lower-price hotels.
The model relies on historical lodging data from Smith Travel Research,
as well as historic and forecast economic data from Moody’s Analytics.
 |
| John B. (Jack) Corgel |
National
Accuracy Highest
“Overall, we remain pleased with our demonstrated
accuracy. We have learned that the
accuracy of our forecasts varies with changes in the business cycle, as well as
size of the market to be forecast,” said Woodworth.
“As we have seen in
the past, the long-term accuracy of our national forecasts of the U.S. lodging
market in its entirety, the chain-scales and the location categories, is very high,”
said John B. (Jack) Corgel, PhD., the Robert C. Baker professor of real
estate at the Cornell University School of Hotel Administration and senior
advisor to PKF-HR.
“One area where we
have seen improvement since our last assessment is in the accuracy of our
short-term forecasts. We attribute the
improvement in short-term forecast accuracy to the lessons learned during our
2010 accuracy assessment.”
For a complete copy of the company’s news release, please
contact:
R. Mark Woodworth Chris Daly
PKF Hospitality Research, LLC. Daly Gray Public Relations
Tel: 404 842 1150, ext 222 Tel: 703 435 6293
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