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| John Oharenko |
Chicago,
IL – The Real Estate Capital Institute (RECI) notes September delivered challenging news to the real estate capital
markets.
A strong dollar, return to domestic manufacturing, and low
unemployment kept the Fed on edge about taming the economy and triggering more
interest rate hikes, leading to a 75-basis-point increase.
John Oharenko, the Real Estate Capital Institute’s® director, recommends, "this fall's real estate capital markets remain in flux, as investors attempt to understand the Fed's plan for taming inflation."
The
US stock market officially reached a recession. Also, multifamily
investors witnessed apartment rents dropping from record highs across the
country for the first time in nearly two years.
Conversely,
millions of apartment dwellers found financial relief after suffering a barrage
of rent hikes during the pandemic.
In
addition to interest rate hikes and softening demand, debt investors require
higher mortgage spreads to cover the uncertain pricing environment.
Mortgage
rates have more than doubled since the beginning of the year, reaching the
highest levels since 2007. Investors are preparing for more rate hikes in
the coming months, showing signs of hawkish rate expectations.
Given
the expectations of higher rates, overall mortgage pricing favors longer-term
debt of ten years or more, as the yield curve remains
inverted.
Permanent, fixed-rate debt for ten-year mortgages
falls within the 120 to 200 basis point range over benchmark treasuries.
Within this range, 80% LTV loans with a minimum debt service coverage of 1.25X
typically cost 40 to 50 basis points more than 65% LTV loans for apartment
properties. Overall rates translate to about 5% to 6%.
Also,
lenders maintain similar underwriting parameters for shorter-term debt, with
comparable-term treasuries hovering approximately ten to twenty basis points
higher than longer-term debt.
The
Real Estate Capital Institute® is a volunteer-based research organization that
tracks realty rates data for debt and equity yields.
The
Institute posts daily and historical benchmark rates, including
treasuries, bank prime, and LIBOR.
Contact:
John Oharenko,
Executive Director
director@reci.com / www.reci.com
The Real
Estate Capital Institute®
Chicago,
Illinois USA 60622