SANTA ANA, CA--Grubb & Ellis Co. senior vice president and chief economist, notes in his periodic market reports:The current recession, which began in December 2007, is in its 14th month, making it the third longest of the 12 postwar recessions.
If it extends past April, a near certainty, it will surpass the 16-month recessions that began in July 1981 and November 1973, making it the longest since the 43-month contraction from 1929 to 1933.
Thus far in the current recession, the labor market has shed 3.6 million payroll jobs, including 598,000 in January alone. This is a decline of 2.6 percent from the peak, slightly more than the 2.4 percent decline during the comparable period of the 1981-82 recession, with 
which the current downturn is most often compared.
which the current downturn is most often compared.(Payroll Job Losses Current Versus 1981-82 Recession Chart, middle left image.)
However, the January unemployment rate of 7.6 percent remains well below the peak of 10.8 percent registered in November and December of 1982.
The labor market lags the broader economy, which is unlikely to recover until the housing market stabilizes, lenders and investors can measure the full extent of their losses, and credit begins flowing again. That will be a gradual, halting process.
Commercial real estate leasing activity, which lags the labor market, is in effect a double lagging indicator of the broader economy, meaning that conditions will be soft for the next couple of years.
Source: BLS, NBER, Grubb & Ellis
For more information or to speak with Bob Bach, please contact Janice McDill at 312.698.6707.
No comments:
Post a Comment