Atlanta, GA. – Despite news that will likely influence the short-term economic performance of the U.S. economy, PKF Hospitality Research, LLC (PKF-HR) affirms its strong forecasts of RevPAR growth for the nation’s lodging industry. According to the recently released June 2012 edition of Hotel Horizons®, PKF-HR is projecting RevPAR for U.S. hotels will increase by 5.8 percent in 2012, and another 6.6 percent in 2013. These forecasts are identical to the RevPAR forecasts presented in the March 2012 edition of Hotel Horizons®.
“Given the headlines of late, I understand why our clients are concerned about the future health of the economy and the U.S. lodging industry,” said R. Mark Woodworth (top right photo), president of PKF-HR.
“However, the fundamental questions should focus on how many of these headlines were a surprise.
“Sluggish job growth and economic chaos in Europe have been in the news for a while, and despite these conditions, the performance of the U.S. lodging market during the first quarter of 2012 was just as strong as we had forecast.
“Therefore, we see no reason to change our opinion regarding the remainder of the year.”
The 2012 annual RevPAR growth forecast of 5.8 percent is the result of a projected 1.6 percent increase in occupancy and a 4.1 percent gain in average daily rate (ADR).
PKF-HR is forecasting average quarterly RevPAR gains of 4.9 percent during the second half of 2012. This is less than the estimated 6.9 percent RevPAR growth enjoyed during the first six months of the year.
“We are projecting a bit of a slowdown in performance during the second half of 2012,” Woodworth noted. “.Some of the more critical uncertainties throttling demand growth will not be resolved until after the presidential election and decisions are made regarding tax legislation.”
One of many economic measures monitored by PKF-HR is The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index® (LEI).
“We believe there is a six to eight month lag between changes in the LEI and movements in lodging demand,” said John B. (Jack) Corgel (lower left photo) Ph.D., the Robert C. Baker professor of real estate at the Cornell University School of Hotel Administration and senior advisor to PKF-HR.
“The decline in the LEI observed during the last quarter of 2011 suggested a softening in the demand for hotel rooms during the third quarter of 2012. However, the LEI bounced back nicely during the first half of 2012, thus perpetuating our optimism for 2013. Recoveries from economic recessions are usually not even.”
To purchase a June 2012 Hotel Horizons® report, please visit www.hotelhorizons.com. Reports are available for each of 50 major metropolitan areas in the U.S., and contain five year projections of supply, demand, occupancy, ADR, and RevPAR.
For a complete copy of the company’s news release, please contact:
R. Mark Woodworth
PKF Hospitality Research
Tel: 404 842 1150, ext 222
Email: mark.woodworth@pkfc.com
Chris Daly
Daly Gray Public Relations
Tel: 703 435 6293
Email: chris@dalygray.com
http://www.dalygray.com/
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