Rachael Rothman |
Dallas, TX – Despite facing challenges from subdued summer demand and a sluggish third quarter, U.S. hotel performance is expected to reaccelerate in the fourth quarter and extend into 2025, according to CBRE’s latest forecast.
CBRE now forecasts a 0.5%
increase in revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth for 2024, down from the
previously estimated 1.2% in August.
This revision reflects a
40 basis point (bps) decrease in expected occupancy compared to the prior
forecast, with occupancy anticipated to decline by 30 bps year-over-year.
The average daily rate
(ADR) is expected to increase by 0.7%, a reduction of 40 bps from earlier
projections. RevPAR growth is expected to reaccelerate beginning in Q4 2024,
supported by recent interest rate cuts, easing inflation, and rising stock
market trends.
Michael Nhu |
In Q3 2024, hotel demand declined 0.1% year-over-year, coupled with a 0.6%
increase in supply, resulting in an approximately 0.8% decline in occupancy.
Modest ADR growth of 0.6% fell short of CBRE's previous expectation of 1.6%,
leading to a 0.2% decrease in RevPAR for the quarter.
“The breakdown in the
historical correlation between hotel demand and GDP growth continued into the
third quarter, but we expect a normalization of this relationship due to
interest rate cuts, lower CPI growth, and improving GDP indicators,” said Michael Nhu, Head of Global Hotels
Forecasting for CBRE. “These trends are forecasted to strengthen the
fundamentals of the U.S. hotel market, leading to reaccelerated RevPAR growth
heading into 2025.”
The November 2024 edition of Hotel Horizons for the U.S. lodging
industry, 65 major markets, the six hotel chain scales and six location types
can be purchased by visiting: https://pip.cbrehotels.com/hotelhorizons. CBRE’s
baseline forecasts do not contemplate an international war or a pervasive
recession. CBRE also produces forecasts based on upside and downside scenarios.
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